Rafael Correa, Ecuador’s combative leftwing president, is keeping financial markets guessing about whether he will make an interest payment due on Monday on an international bond issue his administration claims is illegitimate.

Regardless of whether Mr Correa makes the payment, many observers say the global financial crisis, a sharp fall in oil prices and remittances from abroad, together with a costly programme of social spending make the odds of Ecuador eventually defaulting greater by the day.