Not so fast. Doomsayers on Wall Street retreated in the face of US payrolls data that came in better than expected yesterday. The dollar, bond yields and equities all rose. Still, when optimists crow over a negative jobs number, it is a sign all is not well. As with this week’s better-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product growth figure, April’s headline employment numbers portray resiliency in the face of multiple headwinds. Monthly falls in the payrolls number had accelerated steadily since January, so April’s fall of 20,000 compared with March’s fall of 81,000 offers welcome respite.

Payrolls data are notoriously volatile, however – for example, April’s estimate of net jobs added or lost by newly opened or closed businesses (the “net birth/death adjustment”) bumped up payrolls by 267,000. Even taken at face value, it is hard to paint the April numbers as bullish. It was still the fourth straight month of losses. Outside of the professional and business services segment, losses were mostly in line with the first quarter’s dismal trend. Manufacturing shed jobs, as did the residential construction sector. The rate of losses in non-residential construction picked up sharply in April, suggesting pain is spreading beyond the moribund housing market.