Traders creeping back to their desks after the summer will find the mood of the markets has changed significantly. Producer and consumer price data in the US have calmed the widespread worries about accelerating inflation.

Bond yields have fallen accordingly, with the 10-year Treasury yield down at 4.8 per cent, against 5.24 per cent in June. But even though the yield curve is now significantly inverted (with the Fed funds rate at 5.25 per cent), few are worrying about recession.