The US is likely to start growing over the next few quarters. But US households are likely to remain subdued, as they cope with high debt and the prospect of unemployment. As the fiscal stimulus wears off, and the massive buildup of US government debt limits spending, the world will look elsewhere for demand growth.

The obvious candidates are the emerging markets. But they would have to change strategy, from pushing exports to expanding domestic demand. For countries like China, this would bring a welcome rebalancing of growth, from red-hot coastal areas to more remote western provinces. It would reduce regional inequality and the accompanying political tensions.