What would send markets for a loop? Disconcertingly, it is possibly the event which the world’s populations, and its politicians, have been awaiting – a strong and early recovery in employment.

This joyous event would be a problem because it is currently deemed so unlikely. There is a deep split between “bears” who believe the weight of bad debts and the “deleveraging” – paying down debts – that it causes will drag the economy into another dip, and “bulls” who believe that government stimuli are jolting the corporate sector back to life.