The situation in Burma is deteriorating as non-violent protests expand and the government response escalates. The junta is reported to have moved opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest to prison, declared curfews in Rangoon and Mandalay and shifted troops into cities. Warning shots are reported to have been fired – and some people killed – as police say mass protests and illegal gatherings will not be tolerated. Distressingly, a violent conclusion seems almost certain. While efforts to prevent violence are under way, the international community should begin to consider responses to potential endgames.

Several countries have put pressure on the junta in an attempt to bring about a peaceful outcome. Unfortunately, the ruling generals are unpredictable at best and ruthless at their worst, offering little hope. The British and Chinese have used diplomatic channels. US president George W. Bush announced financial sanctions against the junta members and their families. India, eager to play a greater regional role, and China, heavily invested in Burma and mindful of its image prior to the Olympics next year, will both be under intense pressure to demonstrate their opposition to any violent resolution. However, it is unrealistic to expect the Chinese government to force a peaceful resolution, as it can only exploit its good political and economic relations so far.