When the US Air Force this year gave EADS, the European defence company, a $35bn contract to supply the military with refuelling tankers, the unexpected decision prompted one defence industry analyst to write a note to his clients that began “Dear Fellow Shock Victims”.

Richard Aboulafia, the analyst at the Teal Group, pointed out that most analysts believed the air force would choose Chicago-based Boeing for the contract, which could ultimately be worth more than $100bn. It was, he said, “the first time anywhere in the world that an imported defence system won against domestic direct competitor”.