In calmer times, most bankers would happily offer a prediction when asked what they expected in the coming year. But after the trauma of the past 18 months, the consensus among those bank executives who have managed to hang on to their jobs is that they have no idea what will happen next.

This is not surprising. A year ago, British policymakers were still arguing about whether or not to nationalise Northern Rock, the failed mortgage lender. Twelve months on, Britain has a controlling stake in Royal Bank of Scotland while Citigroup, once the world’s largest bank, is operating with the support of the US government. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, two of Wall Street’s oldest names, have disappeared while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have become commercial banks.