In a broadcast tonight, George W. Bush will gamble what remains of his presidency on a counter-insurgency strategy drawn up by the general he appointed last week to take charge of US forces in Iraq.

The 168-page manual, that Lieutenant General David Petraeus completed last month, provides the blueprint for what supporters of Mr Bush's expected 20,000 troop "surge" hope the beefed up US forces will do in Iraq over the coming months.