It would be a strange time for the Federal Reserve to shock the markets. Interbank borrowing remains dislocated. Credit markets have recovered only marginally from last month’s shock, leaving consumers and companies paying more to borrow. Meanwhile, the Fed has some cover from the “real economy” to justify fulfilling market expectations with an interest rate cut on Monday.

Economic growth remains sluggish, inflation has inched back within the Fed’s target range and August’s very weak jobs number has raised concerns about the labour market. Yet, surprisingly, it is still probably the most uncertain Fed meeting in years.