Financial Times FT.com

The Short View: Overvalued pound

By John Authers, Investment Editor

Published: April 17 2007 19:43 | Last updated: April 17 2007 19:43

£1 will now buy you more than $2. This is the first time that has been true since it closed above $2 for four days during its chaotic exit from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992. The landmark is of huge psychological importance in the UK. It makes less of a dent on the American psyche, but it has implications for the US.

The critical moment came with the publication of UK consumer price inflation data. At 3.1 per cent, prices were rising at their fastest rate in the 10 years since the Bank of England was made independent. This was a real surprise, and sharply increased the likelihood of further rises in the bank base rate from its present 5.25 per cent – enough to push the pound past the landmark. Then came inflation numbers for the US, which showed core inflation actually decreasing last month. Predictions of a benign Federal Reserve, keeping rates on hold for many more months, looked all the safer. That held sterling above $2. So Tuesday’s rise in sterling was, in itself, wholly justified by the new data.

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