What a bleak midwinter. It is still hard to see where any green shoots of recovery will break through the permafrosted ground. The recession seems especially unnerving given the length and scale of the good times which preceded it – years in which the current malaise was brewed. It is, therefore, tempting to believe that the world deserves and needs recession to pay for those excesses and to rid ourselves of our unnecessary indulgences. This view, however, is wrong.

In the past few years, the world economy stumbled out of kilter. House prices were unsustainably bloated by cheap money. Deficit countries, such as the UK and the US, borrowed frantically to sustain their consumption. Surplus countries, such as China and Germany, grew rich by sating their bingeing.