If recent Ecuadorean history is a guide, presidents usually end their terms in a hopelessly weak position: battling a hostile Congress and facing street protests, the past three elected leaders have been forced out early.

Rafael Correa may have triumphed in Sunday’s run-off election but he will begin his term on January 15 in a more isolated and weak position position than any of his three predecessors.

This will make it extremely difficult for Mr Correa to emulate his friend Hugo Chávez, the bombastic president of Venezuela, or Bolivia’s Evo Morales, another Chávez ally in another Andean country battling entrenched political and economic interests.

His biggest obstacle is likely to be the newly elected legislature: whereas the governing parties in Venezuela and Bolivia have strong Congressional representation, Mr Correa faces a Congress controlled by his opponents.

The president-elect’s Allianza País party – hastily created to fight the election – did not field any candidates. While this aided his popularity in a country where the legislature is widely discredited, it means no deputies owe their seats to Mr Correa, and none will be unconditionally loyal.

Instead, the largest bloc is under the control of Alvaro Noboa, his rightwing rival. His continuing refusal on Monday to accept that he had lost the race suggests he is in no mood to collaborate.

The second-biggest faction is led by Lucio Gutiérrez, the former president forced out last year by a street protest movement that forms the core of Mr Correa’s support. Together with the right-leaning Social Christian party, these groups have a congressional majority. that could prove a headache for the president-elect.

Mr Correa plans to set up an assembly to rewrite the constitution, a body that would have more power than the legislature. “We need a fundamental restructuring of Congress,” he said on Sunday night, adding that his victory “sends a clear message to the traditional politicians of the desire for profound change”.

But the Congress is likely to resist put up a fierce fight against the establishment of a rival assembly. “The constitution simply does not allow the president to do that,” said Mr Gutiérrezyesterday.

At the same time, it is clear that Mr Correa’s victory was as much about the rejection of Mr Noboa as support for his “citizens’ revolution”. Mr Noboa led opinion polls for much of the race but as polling day loomed, voters appeared to take on the fear the banana billionaire would use government to further his business interests.

Mr Correa also softened his rhetoric in the final weeks, particularly the anti-Americanism that had characterised his language ahead of the first round last month. Voters who warmed to him after because of the change will act as a check on him in office.

The early indications are of point to a fairly high level of absenteeism and spoiled ballots, implying that Mr Correa’s actual actual mandate may be less flattering than suggested by his victory in at least 17 of the country’s 22 provinces and the 56 per cent of the valid vote he secured.

Presidential popularity has a tendency to collapse drop precipitously in Ecuador, and Mr Correa could soon find that his window for action has closed. withered away.

The president-elect lacks political experience, apart from a short-lived stint as finance minister last year. Mistrust of political elites could lead him to shut himself away in the presidential palace in Quito and. He is likely to surround himself with trusted colleagues, such as Ricardo Patiño, who served as his deputy when he was finance minister and is likely to be finance minister himself come January.

In recent weeks, many have compared Mr Correa has been likened to Mr Gutiérrez, who was elected on a leftwing platform but switched quickly to a pro-US, free-market programme.

However, Mr Correa should be able to effect his plans to expand public spending, thanks to a good dose of luck: Ecuador, the second-largest South American exporter of crude to the US, is enjoying the boom in oil prices. The country is also benefiting from a low-tariff regime with the US, an arrangement that seems likely to be extended.

The new administration could restructure or default on Ecuador’s debt – as Mr Correa has hinted he would do – without consulting Congress. But to do so would be likely to raise the stakes with the legislature, possibly prompting a vote of censure.

If, alternatively, Mr Correa opts for dialogue rather than confrontation, his programme is likely to be severely compromised by the need to make a deal strike an arrangement with his political foes in Congress.

The programme seems likely either to be bogged down in stalemate or diluted beyond recognition. That is the unenviable choice that Mr Correa will be considering as he takes a break after months of campaigning and takes a holiday to the Galapagos Islands.