For the market, the US presidential campaign is taking shape. Judging by trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain’s chances of being the Republican nominee are 76 per cent. The market anointed him the front-runner some time before the punditocracy did so.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s chances are put at 65 per cent. Worryingly for Barack Obama, given that the market seems to have called the Republican race correctly, his futures failed to rise after his dramatic win in South Carolina.