What is the link between a visit to Russia by an 18th century Swiss mathematician, collateralised debt obligations, and the philosopher’s stone?
The Swiss mathematician, Daniel Bernoulli, first propounded the St Petersburg Paradox. A version for today’s markets envisages a casino with a coin-tossing game at fair odds. You hope to win at the first toss with a £100 stake. But if you lose, you will stake £200 on the next throw. If you lose again, you raise your stake to £400, and so on. You keep doubling your bet until you win. Simple mathematics shows that when you do win, you recoup all your previous losses and make £100 profit. Since you are bound to win eventually, the scheme is a sure means of winning £100.

COLUMNISTS 

