A cloud no larger than a betting slip has moved over European monetary union, which could be joined by some rather larger, darker, formations. Last March, Intrade, the (appropriately) Irish-based online betting site started a contract called “Euro dropped 2010”. It would pay off at 100 if, by December 31, 2010, “any current user to drop euro currency”, as Intrade puts it.

The contract has not been heavily used – there has been a total volume of 65 trades booked – but even so, the movement has been interesting. From a low of 10, the contract price has now stairstepped up to 33.5, with a high bid price of 21 and an asking price of 60; rather a wide spread. There are 150 bids on the book waiting to be hit at 11.