The consensus view of economists is that the probability of a US recession is now between 30 to 40 per cent. How would this affect the eurozone? If a variety of surveys this week are to be believed, consumer and business confidence have taken a dent in response to a strong euro and the credit squeeze. Optimists maintain that this time round the eurozone economy is better balanced, with higher consumption and less dependence on exports to the US. Unfortunately the evidence that Europe has “decoupled” seems slight.

Consumption relative to output has remained flat between 2002 and 2006. Exports from the eurozone have not become less important, remaining roughly constant at 16 per cent of gross domestic product. It is tempting to look at the slew of European companies attributing bumper results to emerging economies and conclude the eurozone’s key export markets have been transformed. The share of eurozone exports going to China and Russia rose from 5 to 7 per cent between 2002 and 2006, while the US’s share declined by 2 percentage points. But the US is still the biggest market after the UK, buying 14 per cent of exports – the same as in 1997.