Caution, as ever, is its watchword, and a wise central banker would not crow publicly. But ahead of its interest-rate-setting meeting next week, the European Central Bank evidently feels its strategy to combat the economic crisis is being vindicated.

The 16-country eurozone is emerging from recession – France and Germany ahead of the UK and US – while deflationary risks have diminished and policies are in place to stimulate bank lending. “They must be feeling good because it doesn’t feel as though you need to do a whole lot more,” says Erik Nielsen, European economist at Goldman Sachs.