Ten years after the Irish Republican Army declared its ceasefire, the political future of Northern Ireland looks as far as ever from settlement. The peace process has been on hold since Ulster's devolved assembly was suspended in October 2002. The impasse worsened when last year's assembly elections handed victory to the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin, the more hard-line parties on each side.

Next month, all the parties will gather for talks at Leeds Castle in Kent, under the joint chairmanship of Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart. The obstacles to further progress remain formidable: Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists refuse to talk to Sinn Féin unless the IRA is disbanded and demand complete renegotiation of the Good Friday agreement. Sinn Féin has failed to complete the decommissioning of republican arms promised under the agreement, insisting that unionists recognise its electoral mandate.