It is customary in the new year for columnists to issue a flurry of forecasts about how the markets will behave this year. So here comes my prediction for 2007 - but it does not carry any implication for equity or credit prices.

Whatever else happens to markets, I would bet that this year the overall financial system will remain as opaque as it was in 2006, if not more so. Or, to use a (somewhat simplistic) metaphor, if you picture the financial system as an iceberg, the chunk of this system that is submerged will expand this year - at least, relative to the piece of the iceberg that is fully visible to the wider public.