As one veteran observer of Washington farm politics put it recently: commodity prices are high, ethanol is boosting demand and farmers are happy, so there has never been a better time to reform agricultural subsidies. Then again, commodity prices are high, ethanol is boosting demand and farmers are happy, so there has never been a worse time to reform farm subsidies.

Uncertainty abounds among businesses and farmers worldwide anxiously watching the Doha round of trade talks. American farmers need to accept cuts in subsidies if the talks are to proceed, and the so-called “farm bill” – the five-year programme of agricultural rules and subsidies – will be renegotiated this year.