Emerging market telecoms deals, it has been said, are like shopping in a souk. Negotiations are often presaged by share-ramping rumours, then marked by half-deliverable promises and only eventually, maybe, sealed. So too with Wednesday’s crop: a putative $14bn bid from a mysterious Indo-Malaysian consortium to buy a 46 per cent stake in Kuwait-based Zain, and Vivendi’s €2bn offer for Brazilian broadband operator GVT.
The Zain deal is the most opaque. The supposed buyers include a Malaysian billionaire, little-known telecoms company Vavasi, and a state-controlled Indian company – which presumably needs government approval before it can move. At least Zain’s sellers – the Kharafi Group, with some 20 per cent, and unspecified minorities representing another 26 – are keen. And why not, given the price? At about 11 times forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, Zain is valued at almost twice the multiple of its low-growth European peers. Corporate governance niceties will be swept aside; Zain’s other minorities not only forgo a premium, they also lose effective control. Kuwait’s Investment Authority, with a 25 per cent stake, will have to look after itself.

ASIA-PACIFIC 

