Any financial analyst worth his or her salt will conduct a “sanity check” when presented with a number that seems like an outlier. That is certainly warranted after a rapid decline in the Baltic Dry index from above 4,000 to about 1,700 in two months. The BDI measures prices for carrying dry bulk such as industrial commodities by sea and has been widely used as an unofficial economic barometer. If it is to be believed, a double-dip recession must surely be upon us after an epic string of consecutive declines that matches the longest such spell since the 2001 recession.
Several analysts have poured cold water on the BDI’s prescience, though, given some obvious distortions. It takes about three years to build fresh capacity and, because the peak of the commodities bubble was two to three years ago, new ships are now depressing charter rates. The global fleet has expanded by about a quarter this year alone. For now, other indicators of commodities demand trump the BDI.
