This year retailers will join kids in dreading the autumn term. The back-to-school selling season, second in importance only to Christmas, has not started well. ShopperTrak expects foot traffic in the stores it monitors to be a 10th below last year, while most estimates put the decline in retail sales at about 6 per cent. Beyond that, no one knows when consumers will start to spend again or what in fact the new level of business will be.

The picture is clouded because, for most of last year, retailers used big discounts to lure shoppers into purchases. Now that the industry has embraced inventory discipline – Chinese manufacturers report very low order levels so far this year – there should not be a repeat of the clearance bargains that once drew shoppers’ interest. Underlying demand remains grim and Thursday’s retail sales numbers for July showed discretionary spending continues to drop by 5 to 10 per cent.