Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, will launch a three-pronged assault at the Consumer Electronics Show next week to become a key provider of components for a new generation of mobile internet devices.
Analysts have warned it can expect to make little progress in 2008 with its strategy, while industry rivals say the PC microprocessor leader faces major opposition in its attempts to win market share in the cell phone and consumer electronics industries.
In a keynote speech at the Las Vegas extravaganza, Paul Otellini, chief executive, will announce a fresh line-up of processors for notebook PCs, as well as partner support for its new platform for mobile internet devices (Mids).
He will also cite progress in the deployment of WiMax, the broadband wireless technology Intel is promoting.
Intel has been working with Clearwire and Sprint on creating a mobile WiMax network across the US in 2008.
WiMax has evolved from Intel’s need to take the next step beyond the Wi-Fi chips it includes in its Centrino platform for notebook PCs, providing localised wireless internet access.
It says 2008 will see the creation of “uber hotspots” in cities with WiMax’s ability to cover wide areas.
However, Intel’s combined Wi-Fi and WiMax modules appearing in notebook PCs and smaller devices in the second half of 2008 will face competition from “3.5G” cell phone technologies, which are also being integrated into laptops for the first time.
HSPA technology running on GSM networks is already capable of download speeds of 7.2 megabits per second.
“WiMax will say they can deliver 4 to 5mb/sec, but we can do that now and we already have the networks in place,” says Arun Bhikshesvaran, chief technology officer of Ericsson North America.
“By 2011, we expect 50 per cent of new laptops will have HSPA embedded and analysts think this may happen even faster.”
Forrester Research estimated last week there will be less than 2m mobile WiMax subscribers in the US by the end of 2008, in spite of a coverage area of a potential 100m subscribers.
“New device form factors, such as mobile internet devices, will fail to tell a compelling story that motivates a significant change in consumer behaviour,” it said.
Intel will ship its first-generation low-power microprocessor platform, codenamed Menlow, in the first half and is expected to show Menlow-based mobile internet devices from manufacturers including Asus, BenQ, Clarion, Compal, Lenovo and Quanta at CES.
Charles Golvin, Forrester analyst, says the success of Mids and WiMax are interdependent.
“[Intel’s slogan] ‘the internet in your pocket wherever you go’, depends on WiMax: you can only realise that promise when you really do have a ubiquitous service.”
He sees more potential for Mids initially as entertainment or navigation devices.
As Intel moves beyond the PC to embedding its processors in these smaller devices, it enters the territory of rivals making embedded low-power processors designed by Britain’s ARM Holdings.
“There’s a mid-range product between a PC and a smartphone and they want to be the microprocessor of choice for that product category. This is Intel versus virtually everybody else in the semiconductor industry using ARM. I personally don’t think they’re going to be successful,” says Warren East, ARM chief executive.
“We are still an order of magnitude ahead in power consumption,” he adds, pointing out Intel’s previous failure to break into the cell phone market with its processors. He claims an ARM-based chip from Texas Instruments consumes less power in running than an Intel one in ‘sleep mode’.
Henri Richard, former head of sales at Intel’s PC rival AMD and now sales chief with ARM partner Freescale, says the ‘x86’ processors Intel and AMD develop for PCs have been reduced enough in size to be competitive in smaller devices.
But he says the consumer electronics and cell phone industries would not want to see Intel dominate.
“So many customers have watched what happened in the PC business with fear. They are not going to do anything to support that business model,” he says.
Intel’s best chance for success in its mobile internet strategy remains in notebook computers, where industry sales are up 30 per cent year-on-year. Notebook sales should overtake those of desktop PCs in 2009, according to the IDC research firm.
“People making their second or third purchase of a computer are choosing notebooks,” says Bahr Mahony, head of marketing for AMD’s mobile division.

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