“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Benjamin Disraeli, later popularised by Mark Twain.
Let’s drill down to examine three sets of government-issued lies, or should I say statistics, that shape our perceptions of the economy, and hence our investment opportunity set: “off balance sheet” (OBS) spending, deceptions in the inflation statistics and the pretence that we’re perhaps avoiding a recession.

What’s the expected US fiscal deficit in the coming year? $500bn (£283bn, €350bn)? Guess again. With the accrual of future obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and with the cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan – all of which are off balance sheet – the true deficit is roughly $1,000bn.