Don’t heed the “doom-mongers”, says Sir Philip Green, the retail tycoon – even with sales down 4 per cent year-on-year at his private BHS chain during the past six weeks. The figures add to evidence that what was a Wall Street phenomenon is now ravaging British high streets. And if the coming recession is as bad as in 1990-92 – and indications are it might be – it could be even worse for non-food retailers.
The reason: UK consumers are going into this downturn more vulnerable, because they are more leveraged. A decade of conspicuous consumption has seen the household saving ratio – savings as a percentage of household income – approach historic lows. Non-food retail sales are driven by real wage growth, credit availability and housing wealth. Since real incomes, after inflation, have been falling for about two years, consumers have dipped into savings, and used remortgaging and credit cards to maintain spending.

LEX 