The rejection of the European Union's proposed constitution in France and the Netherlands has shocked the European elite, who seemed to take for granted popular support for building a common European house. Although warnings that ratification could run into problems had been plentiful even before the constitution was signed, the would-be founding fathers brushed off the sceptics. Europe's well-oiled bureaucracy still cannot believe that a systemic failure has occurred, one that could jeopardise the very basis of its existence.

Subsequent developments, including the refusal of Britain and others to proceed with the ratification process and the show of disunity at last month's EU summit, not just on the constitution but also on the crucial budget and finance issues, suggest that the European project is facing a ­profound crisis. What has happened is not yet a catastrophe, but could mark the beginning of one unless an in-depth analysis is undertaken and lessons