Financial Times FT.com

Consumer confidence at lowest level since May

By Jennifer Hughes in New York

Published: September 28 2004 15:58 | Last updated: September 28 2004 18:30

US consumer confidence worsened last month to its weakest level since May as gloom over the employment outlook increased, according to a survey by the Conference Board released on Tuesday.

The Board said its index of confidence slipped to 96.8 from 98.7, confounding economists' expectations for a slight pick-up.

The move lower was led by a worsening in respondents' feelings about the US labour market. Consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" fell to 16.8 per cent from 18.4 per cent, while the numbers claiming jobs were "hard to get" rose to 28.3 per cent from 26 per cent last month.

"Today's consumer confidence survey is consistent with the latest spate of economic news for August and September that suggests that the US has yet to emerge from its 'soft patch' during the third quarter," said Michael Woolfolk, strategist at Bank of New York.

Current events seemed to be weighing on consumers, according to the report. The present situation measure fell to 95.5 from 100.7 in August, while the expectations component rose to 97.6 from 97.3.

Economists said the recent rise in oil prices probably hit consumers' feelings about the current environment. This week, oil prices rose above $50 for the first time as supply concerns continued to dog the market.

But other economists shrugged aside the weakness in the report, and said the dip this month was slight compared to the levels seen last year.

"Readings remain well ahead of their early 2003 low point and remain consistent with moderate spending growth," said Stephen Gallagher, chief US economist at Société Générale, who calculated that the main index remaining near 95 would still imply real spending would grow at a steady pace of between 3 and 3.5 per cent.

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