Rafael Correa has not had much of a honeymoon. This week Ecuador’s president completes a first month in office that has been marked by violent clashes between his supporters and security forces, battles with Congress over political reform and proposed cuts in US anti-drug aid.

However, things could be about to get much worse. Mr Correa’s administration signalled on Monday that, as had been widely expected, it will fail to pay a $135m coupon on its 2030 global bonds, due on Thursday. Although Quito has indicated that it will make the interest payment within a 30-day grace period, analysts are asking whether that will merely delay what some see as an almost inevitable debt default.