After narrowly scraping a general election victory in 2005, few believed Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, would achieve much. The low expectations for her fractious “grand coalition” have proved overly pessimistic. Despite the constraints, Ms Merkel has emerged as Europe’s foremost political leader, more reassuring and dependable than her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. The test now is whether she can turn that authority – and Germany’s economic resilience amid a global downturn – into a platform for a second term in office.

Ms Merkel has learnt the lessons of that flawed campaign. As chancellor, she has compromised on the domestic front, eschewing some of the tough-minded reforms that had worried German voters and the left.