During the general election campaign, the weakness of the public finances meant Gordon Brown faced endless questions about the scale of the tax increases he would be forced to implement early in this parliament. But since the summer, that speculation has all but disappeared.

The public finances have hardly improved. Yesterday, the official figures for the first half of 2005-06 showed public sector net borrowing of £22.9bn, a touch better than the £23.6bn now recorded for the same months in 2004-05, but with a lot more improvement still needed to hit the chancellor's Budget forecasts.