As China's economy shows signs of a modest slowdown from annual growth officially reported at more than 9 per cent in 2003 and 2004 but which physical indicators suggest probably exceeded 10 per cent it is time to ask whether this latest “China boom” has been qualitatively different from previous ones.
Those who believe China is continuing its march away from a state-driven economy cite hard evidence. The efficiencies of the export economy are a given. China will ship about $750bn of goods in 2005 (though much less on a value-added basis, as so many components are imported) and there is no structural reason why this headline figure cannot continue growing at 15 to 20 per cent a year. Imports, meanwhile, increased between 2000 and 2004 by almost four times as much as in the entire 1990s, an increment of $395bn versus $107bn. In recent years, Chinese imports have fuelled a global commodities bonanza and set world prices for everything from steel to palm oil.
