Central bankers can be an unpredictable lot. Last week the Bank of England sprang a surprise interest rate rise on unsuspecting Brits. On Thursday it was the turn of the Bank of Japan, which, having spent recent weeks preparing the market for a rise, decided to sit tight after all.

Japan can certainly make a case for leaving the taps running. Personal consumption remains sluggish: wages are stubbornly flat, discouraging spending. The household consumer index shows confidence last month hit its lowest ebb in two years. Stripping out energy, Japanese prices are still falling. Unfortunately, that is not the case championed by the hawkish Bank of Japan, which has been stressing its “forward-looking” credentials and a rosier outlook. And it is certainly not the line being peddled to markets, where swap futures this week implied an 80 per cent probability of an interest rate rise.