When an entire financial system is saved by the state, no bank can claim to have had a “good crisis”. Still, JPMorgan was less reckless than most and kept its head – picking up Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual for peanuts. Notwithstanding the odd billion dollars of one-off trading gains, JPMorgan will continue to glow after Wednesday’d third-quarter results. Net profits jumped by a third versus the previous bumper quarter, dragging shares 3 per cent higher.
But it is easy to paint a greyer picture. JPMorgan’s fundamental problem is an overexposure to arguably one of the big themes of the next decade: the de-leveraging of western households and companies after years of over-extension. This process can already be seen in the numbers. Apart from investment banking, a corporate unit boosted by trading funnies and a bounce in markets that flattered asset management, pre-provision profits fell in every other division compared with last quarter. Anything to do with lending to consumers or companies, by JPMorgan’s own admission, looks grim indeed. Another $2bn was added to consumer credit reserves.

LEX 