Until last month, there was a widely held belief in UN circles that any candidates who put themselves forward too early for the post of secretary-general were assured of failure. Ban Ki-moon, the soft-spoken South Korean foreign minister who declared he would stand in February and is now all but certain to win the post, has proved that thinking deeply flawed. While it remains to be seen what back-room deals he may or may not have cut, it is clear that he benefited from a long and concerted campaign ahead of a series of polls this month and last.

In September, he caused a surprise by winning the backing of almost all council members, attesting to months of bilateral contacts with not only the five veto-wielding powers, but also the elected 10.