The Obama administration had been hinting that it might abandon plans for missile defence bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. This decision was no surprise, and much can be said in its favour. But it is one that needs to be explained with care and supported with other adjustments in defence planning. Otherwise it risks undermining US relations with allies and letting Russia believe that, if pushed, the US will back down.

The Bush administration proposed the central European extension of its missile defence programme to meet the threat posed by Iran’s development of long-range missiles. Poland and the Czech Republic liked the scheme because it would have put US soldiers and equipment on their territory, bolstering US commitment to their defence. Russia saw it as a grave affront, and a check on its power in its “sphere of influence”.