The visit by John Thain, chief executive of Merrill Lynch, to Moscow in January looked to be welcome respite from the turmoil ravaging western financial markets.

Mr Thain named Russia as one of the “most important places” for growth prospects and said its commodity-driven economy made it “more insulated” than other emerging markets from the global slowdown.

Other banks followed in his wake. Lehman Brothers soon announced it had won a full brokers licence for Russia. Barclays Bank spent $745m on buying Expobank. And then in March, HSBC said it was investing $200m to expand in Russia.

Backed by record high oil prices that have filled foreign currency reserves to $490.6bn and a stabilisation fund to $160bn, Russia’s central bank has launched a raft of measures since last autumn to stave off a potential liquidity crisis and ensure that the country retains its reputation as a “safe haven”. The economy, meanwhile, has continued to grow thanks to high oil prices and a consumer boom.

The central bank’s measures have included depositing some $4.5bn in the banking system – funds intended originally for Russia’s new Development Bank. This, plus Finance Ministry plans to place an additional 340bn roubles ($144bn) in surplus budget funds on deposit in commercial banks, have helped fend off liquidity jitters over massive repayments of debts by Russian banks and companies, which have thus far helped fund rapid growth by borrowing heavily on international markets.

But bankers warn that the longer the financial crisis goes on in the western world, the harder it is going to get for Russia.

Sergey Aleksashenko, chairman of Merrill Lynch in Russia and a former deputy central banker, says that out of Russia’s total $400bn foreign corporate and banking debt around $100bn is short-term debt due this year. Russian companies have already managed to pay off $20bn in foreign debt in the fourth quarter of last year and raised enough refinancing to bring in an additional $15bn. “It all depends on whether they can repeat this in the first, second and third quarters,” Mr Aleksashenko says.

So far, Russia looks to have weathered the first. But regardless of whether it manages to refinance corporate debt without default, the country’s economic growth is inevitably going to slow due to the scarcity of funds on global markets, economists say. Two senior liberal Russian officials even broke ranks in late January to warn publicly that Russia could pay dearly for its aggressive foreign policy toward the west at a time when the global economic situation was deteriorating.

Since Vladimir Putin’s protégé, Dmitry Medvedev, won the presidency, signs are growing that Russia could seek a thaw. Mr Medvedev told the Financial Times that Russia was open for a re-establishment of ties with the UK, and was working on ways to form a legacy pact on strategic defence cuts with the Bush administration.

The eurobond market for Russian companies is largely closed, analysts and bankers say. But the syndicated loan market is still open for business, especially for big Russian commodity companies. Some $11.5bn in syndicated loans have been signed by Russian companies and banks so far this year, with $7.5bn still upcoming for the first quarter, according to Loan Radar, the syndicated-loan news service.

Perhaps even more symptomatic of the fall-out from the credit crisis is the dearth of Russian initial public offerings this year, compared with 2007, which saw Russia raise $42bn in share issues in London and Moscow.

Natasha Tsukanova, head of Russian and CIS investment banking for JP Morgan, says the days of easy money for Russian companies are over. But she adds that the increased discipline required to raise funds was creating a much healthier situation. “Over the past two years, we saw valuations run away. Certain companies felt they had unlimited access to capital,” she says.

As one example of the new environment, Ms Tsukanova cites a deal in which Geotech Oil Services Holding, an oilfield services company, had raised $100m by way of private placement instead of borrowing from banks.

“My sense is that funds are still happy to invest at the right valuations and with the right protections,” she says.

“The period when you could raise any money is over.”