Luck knocks on the door to see if prudence is in. In that sense, BNP Paribas is one of the lucky few. Europe’s second-biggest bank by market capitalisation is about to join the likes of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase in repaying government money early, and is seeking €4.3bn of fresh equity to do so. Paris may fret that returning €5.1bn of hybrid capital could crimp BNP’s ability to lend into the French economy. But its rising cost made early repayment inevitable.
Paradoxically, BNP’s tier one ratio now falls slightly. This, however, is a first for the bank since the crisis began. Thanks to its profitability, and some shrinkage of the loan book, BNP’s tier one ratio has risen from 5.4 per cent in December to 9 per cent now. Whether this is enough to satisfy G20 regulators depends on which you ask. As a proportion of risk-weighted assets, the preferred European view, it might be. But for the US, which prefers a blunter leverage ratio, BNP’s tangible common equity is less than 3 per cent of total assets; that looks light compared with, say, Citi at almost 6 per cent. Either way, final rules are only due at the end of next year. By then, BNP may have earned another €10bn of capital. It can afford to wait to ask investors for more, should more be needed.

LEX 