Fears are growing that the tourism industry in many Caribbean states could suffer if Barack Obama, US president-elect, decides to weaken or lift a long-standing US embargo on Cuba.

US passport holders are now banned from going to Cuba. But if American tourists, the Caribbean’s biggest group of visitors, were granted unrestricted access to what is potentially the region’s largest tourism destination, a “seismic shift” could hit the region, said Rafael Romeu, an International Monetary Fund economist who has studied the issue.