A new populist right-of-centre party led by Boyko Borissov, a former police officer and mayor of Sofia, is set to finish first in Bulgaria’s general election on Sunday but will fail to win an outright majority, according to opinion polls.

Bulgaria, the poorest member of the European Union, faces a fruitless summer of political bargaining that could mean holding another election this year – a situation that could prolong the effects of recession and threaten the country’s currency board regime, which pegs the lev to the euro.