The murder of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon seems to support some of the darker predictions for the Middle East that I have been hearing over the past month. As I reported in my blog on November 9, even members of what might be called the “international peacemaking fraternity” are very gloomy. Several of those who have been predicting a new crisis have been pointing to Lebanon as the place where it will erupt.

Lebanon is not just divided on sectarian lines. It also once again has the misfortune of being the battleground for regional conflicts fought out between more powerful neighbours. Syria is clearly fighting to retain its influence in the country and has been directly accused by several parties of being behind the Gemayel murder. Saad Hariri, the son of the murdered Lebanese prime minister, Rafiq Hariri, put the accusations most directly when he said on Tuesday: