Elections in Saudi Arabia and the promise of them in Egypt, along with the "cedar revolution" in Lebanon against Syrian occupation, are being hailed in Washington as a democratic domino effect flowing from the US's intervention in Iraq. Indeed, some pundits believe that just as the Soviet Union collapsed under its own weight, so too will sclerotic and autocratic regimes in the Middle East come crashing down. So, what is next? To paraphrase Winston Churchill, is it "jaw, jaw" or "war, war"?

The assassination of Rafiq Hariri, former Lebanese prime minister, last month could be the key. Hariri's death did not ignite a world war, as the assassination of Austro-Hungary's archduke did in 1914, but it will not be a surprise that some US neo-conservatives are proposing a second act of "democratisation" in its wake, one that also includes a possible exit strategy for Iraq. In spite of attempts by Bashar al-Assad, Syria's president, to distance himself from the assassination and offer to withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon, for the neo-conservatives, the preferred route out of Iraq runs through Syria, an honorary member of the axis of evil.