Iraq is a case where it is all too easy to snatch defeat from the jaws of uncertainty. The debate in the US, Britain and other countries in the US-led coalition is becoming steadily more bitter, more polarised and more distant from the evolving facts on the ground. But George W. Bush was right when he said this week that the challenge is to find a success strategy rather than an exit strategy in Iraq.

There are two good reasons to avoid choosing either an exit or a “stay-the-course” strategy at this time. The first is political. The constitutional referendum now forces Iraqis to address the issues that will determine whether or not Iraq can hold together and develop a workable political process. All the key political issues are now on the table: federalism; the nature of the rule of law; the role of religion in the state; control of oil and national revenues; the power to tax; the relative strength of national and local government; the creation of national forces versus the role of militias; and human rights.