There is anecdotal evidence that Italian women, famously reluctant to produce more than one baby, may be becoming a little keener. Is this one of several signs that Europe’s demographic time bomb may prove to be less explosive than feared?

The bear case is well rehearsed. As birth rates fall, the size of the eurozone’s workforce will start to decline from about 2010, according to the United Nations. As the population ages, each worker will have to support more retirees, meaning either public finances will worsen or taxes will have to rise. Unless productivity increases to compensate, growth rates will fall. Assuming a small rise in worker participation rates (to 70 per cent by 2050), Capital Economics estimates lower labour supply will subtract 0.2 percentage points from gross domestic product growth by 2010.