Alongside the distinct possibility that French and Dutch campaigners against the European constitution may win the referendums of the coming week, Gerhard Schröder's decision to bring forward next year's general election after his Social Democratic party was thrashed in North Rhine-Westphalia at the weekend portends extended paralysis for the European Union.

The job of loosening that gridlock will fall to the UK - the traditional odd man out in modern European affairs - which takes over the EU presidency in the second half of this year. It is hard to be optimistic about its chances.