All eyes are on central bankers in Japan and the US, but China – as always – reserves the right to surprise. Beijing has undertaken several tightening steps this year, including its first interest-rate rise in 18 months and a slew of administrative measures designed to subdue overheating in specific sectors. Data so far suggest these have had little effect. Banks lent Rmb2,140bn ($268bn) in the first half of the year, putting them on track to meet the full-year target by the end of July. Local newspapers report a modest slowdown in money supply (M2) expansion in June, but that still left annual growth above 18 per cent.

Beijing traditionally uses interest rates as a last resort, regarding monetary policy as a blunt tool for an economy that combines pockets of overheating with swathes of poor hinterland. It is also unwilling to encourage capital inflows. The current external backdrop, however, is more conducive to action. Global tightening enables the People’s Bank of China to follow suit without raising interest-rate differentials.