There is an emerging consensus, domestic and international, that Afghanistan is likely to slide into chaos. This misses the central point: there are assets in place that, if organised coherently, could re-establish momentum towards creating a stable, prosperous and democratic Afghanistan. If failure is not an option for the international community, attention must be focused on renewing Afghans’ trust in a bright future to make them active partners in the fight against violence and disorder.

The problem has arisen from failure to adapt to a changed context, loss of momentum in pursuing a credible programme of development and mis-calibrated use of violence. In contrast to 2001, when there was a global consensus on the imperative of stability in Afghanistan, the regional, international and domestic environments have changed. The regional consensus has either frayed or broken, with Pakistan and Afghanistan trading accusations rather than forging the partnership that their mutual interests demand, and Russia, Iran and India sending mixed signals and taking increasingly unilateral approaches. While international consensus on state-building has been forged, the innovative mechanisms of implementation, co-ordination and monitoring required are not yet in place. Meanwhile, the public mood in troop-contributing nations is becoming sceptical of the wisdom of engagement.