Even before Capitol Hill shocked the world’s financial markets this week, the global economy was already mired in difficulties. And whether or not some version of the bail-out package gets passed in the near future, extricating it will be a real struggle.

So far the more optimistic forecasters think any global recession will look somewhat like the last retrenchment in 2001 – a relatively shallow downturn that ended when economies responded to rapid cuts in interest rates.