Financial Times FT.com

Commodities deflated

Published: December 28 2008 16:48 | Last updated: December 28 2008 16:48

C is for commodities, one of the last bubbles to burst during 2008. And what a pop. Oil was first to go, in July, followed by anything dug from the earth. From its peak, the global mining index has fallen 70 per cent, scattering debris from Russia to Australia and sundering deals such as BHP Billiton’s takeover of Rio Tinto.

What to learn? First, the mining industry has a long history of irrationality and this was a classic speculative “rush”. As for all bubbles, there was a new paradigm, in this case demand from emerging markets, particularly China. When growth slowed, commodities were left exposed. Less obvious, however, was the brutal role of deleveraging, including the unwinding of carry trades. Hedge funds facing redemptions, as well as investors closing out short currency positions, were forced to cut long positions, commodity holdings among them.

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